Sunday, March 14, 2004

It's Morning In America, But We Still Gotta Wait 'Til Tuesday In Illinois

Well, Eric Zorn of the Chicago Tribune has emailed a challenge to the Chicago-area bloggers to predict the winners of the Democratic and Republican primaries. In the spirit of March Madness (Go Salukis!) I gladly accept and throw my predictions into the ring!

The winners are determined by carefully averaging polls I don't claim to understand in the slightest and consulting with the first five balls of any random lottery drawing since 1974. Then I guess from there.

First we'll start out with the distinguished oppostion, the Democratic Party.

Your results by percentage:

Barack Obama - 36%
Dan Hynes - 28%
Gery Chico - 16%
Blair Hull - 11%
Maria Pappas - 7%
Joyce Washington - 1%
Nancy Skinner - 1%

I think Obama will win this primary, but it won't be easy due to Hynes' use of the Chicago Dem machine and Chico's pull with Hispanic voters. I shouldn't place Hull so high, but he may get more downstate votes than anyone else.

And now, introducing... YOUR ILLINOIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY CANDIDATES!!! (Yeah, I always wanted to be the field announcer at Busch Stadium... hey, free baseball games!)

Results by percentage:

Jack Ryan - 36%
Jim Oberweis - 33%
Steve Rauschenberger - 12%
Andy McKenna - 11%
John Borling - 5%
Chirinjeev Kathuria - 3%
Norm Hill - 0%
Jonathan Wright - 0%

The big race is going to be between Oberweis and Ryan, with Rauschenberger and McKenna picking up votes from their strong supporters. Song of the Suburbs-endorsed McKenna will make a decent showing, but it won't be enough to see him through. Ryan and Oberweis will place highly mainly on name recognition through advertising, and Ryan will edge Oberweis out mainly because of Oberweis' appearing to be anti-immigrant. In my perfect primary, I'd like to see the top two finishers be McKenna and Kathuria, respectively. Rauschenberger gets his votes by tapping into the Republican machine, but it won't be enough. Wright and Hill will barely be afterthoughts in the campaign.

So there are my predictions for Tuesday. I urge all my readers to go out and vote their conscience, since this is the primary. Right now, we have the most control over who represents us. Let's exercise it to the best of our abilities.

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